“It’s very simple,” Hennessey explains. It takes a lot of guesswork and speculation is abound. People were worried prices would go up because of the conflict, but it wasn’t effecting the price of oil. In essence, you are taking a guess on what the price of oil will be in a month, two months, up to 30 months down the road. “I think it is very dangerous to kind of play the oil game and bet on where the price is going to be,” Hennessey warns. “You can, however, bet on the professionals that do it.”
Falling oil prices may signal not just a good time to invest in a new tank full of gas but also in oil itself. “These are things you have to think about when you are investing in oil,” advices Hennessey.
For additional and more extensive investing and personal finance content from SmartMoney.com, click here.
by Jenn Eaker
Copyright 2006 CBS. But do you know what it takes to bet the markets on crude? Ray Hennessey, editor of Smartmoney.com offers some advice that might fuel your interest.
A lot of people have heard about investing in oil on the stock market, but aren’t too sure where to start or what to do. You take into consideration outside effects on the price like hurricane season and the war in the Middle East. So you are betting on futures, not stocks.”
In the end, supply and demand always wins when it comes to betting on oil prices, he says. “What you had here was demand going down. The Middle East war is a good example. “Here in the US we aren’t using as much oil as we need to.” This was why the higher prices people were predicting turned out to be wrong.. “You are betting on a future price. That’s why we’ve seen oil prices come down,” Hennessey points out. All rights reserved.
You can trade oil through trading in the oil pits, oil exchange-traded funds, which are like stocks, or you can actually bet on the Exxons of the world and get your dividends that way
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The NBA deal also included an equity stake in the company. The other leagues have — at least publicly — not wavered from their anti-legalization stance after the op-ed. “I am very sensitive to people thinking that I’m not understanding of the downsides,” he says. That’s the pragmatic approach.”
The NBA’s pivot point on legalized gambling appeared in a Nov. gaming laws, including PASPA and the Wire Act, which prohibits any betting activity that includes wire transmissions. But that’s not to say he and the NBA are the only ones re-examining their approach. On the one side are those who tell you that’s the way it’s always been done, and on the other are those who urge you to change and adapt.. Just 88 days into his tenure as NBA commissioner, on April 29, 2014, Silver banned Clippers owner Donald Sterling in a four-minute proclamation on national TV, his willingness to stand alone in full view.
So it is, then, that for now, at least, Silver seems comfortable standing alone as the only acting U.S. “In light of these domestic and global trends,” he wrote, “the laws on sports betting should be changed. That’s yet another reason I think it needs to be closely monitored.”
The timing of the column, of course, was calculated. Actually establishing a legal framework is another. In that dark moment, the NBA could very well have hunkered down and waited for the dawn. Once again, the leagues sued and won. Regardless of public positioning, all the leagues are actively planning for a new gambling reality. So were politicians. It could have continued to treat sports betting as the enemy that for as long as anyone could remember had threatened the very fabric of the game. One week later, the NBA was due back in court as part of its ongoing fight to prevent New Jersey from making sports betting legal.
In November 2011, New Jersey voters had overwhelmingly approved a referendum to legalize Las Vegas-style sports betting at racetracks and casinos across the state. “And while I wouldn’t categorize that as sports betting, on the continuum of no betting at all and legalized betting, it’s certainly on the spectrum.”
When asked about the support he’s getting from other leagues, Silver says, “I have talked to the commissioners in the other leagues about it, and I leave it to them to make any public statements they want to make on it. He’s relaxed, though not unguarded. (One study by Nevada gaming company Club Cal Neva projected a possible windfall of $50 million for Atlantic City casinos if betting was legalized.) But the leagues — the NBA, NFL, NHL and MLB — and the NCAA sued, claiming that the state was in violation of PASPA and that the perception of the integrity of the games would be damaged if New Jersey began taking legal bets.
This story appears in ESPN The Magazine’s Feb. Attorney Harris Fischman examined major U.S. commissioner to publicly support legalized sports gambling. Does it become a vehicle for betting, which may in effect change the atmosphere in the arenas?”
The Donaghy revelation became the ugliest gambling scandal to hit an American professional sport since at least Pete Rose’s banishment from baseball in 1989 and perhaps since the Black Sox threw the 1919 World Series. Subscribe today!
In the meantime, Silver is willing to take the lead on an issue that some liken to the legalization of marijuana — socially acceptable but mostly illegal. The “defendant,” “Ginger McKenna,” was accused of facilitating illegal sports bets. 13, 2014, editorial in The New York Times, penned by new commissioner Adam Silver: I believe that sports betting should be brought out of the underground and into the sunlight where it can be appropriately monitored and regulated. In some areas of Australia, for example, sportsbooks pay fees to leagues based on the gross revenue made off the wagering of the games. The title of the exercise? “As Close as You Ever Want to Get to a Federally Prosecuted Sports Betting Trial.” In it, Assistant U.S. … Chris Christie, who in 2012 began pushing to legalize sports betting in his state by challenging the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) of 1992, the federal ban on state-sponsored sports betting. “I felt the need to explain why I had made other statements acknowledging that I thought sports betting should be legalized,” Silver says. “We have always known betting, fantasy leagues and daily [fantasy] sports have driven interest and viewership,” wrote the Mavericks’ owner in a recent email exchange with The Magazine. That’s when Silver says he began to realize the need for a response. And the NHL and MLB are both currently partnered with daily fantasy sports operator DraftKings.
THE NBA’S DARKEST hour can actually be marked by a single moment, concentrated down to the uttering of a sentence. “I can tell you that this is the most serious situation and worst situation that I have ever experienced either as a fan of the NBA, a lawyer for the NBA or a commissioner of the NBA.” That was the lament of then-commissioner David Stern during a July 24, 2007, news conference announcing that referee Tim Donaghy was under federal investigation for betting on games. In England, bets can be placed on a smartphone, at a stadium kiosk or even using a TV remote control. In 2009, the then-commissioner told Sports Illustrated, when asked if legal sports betting would be in the NBA’s best interest, “It has been a matter of league policy to answer that question no. All of them have assigned people to study the issue intensively.
” — NBA commissioner Adam Silver
In September, Silver told an audience at a Bloomberg sports business conference that expanded legalized sports betting in the U.S. In March, two NBA attorneys attended a mock sports-betting trial put on by gaming attorney Jeff Ifrah at iGaming North America at Planet Hollywood in Las Vegas. But the timing of the op-ed allowed him to address another seeming hypocrisy: Just one day prior to its publication, the league announced a deal with a successful daily fantasy operator called FanDuel, which boasted some $621 million in entry fees last year alone. Included in the forum, which wasn’t open to the public, were talks with law enforcement officials, gaming regulators, addiction specialists and even a former student-athlete caught up in sports gambling. District Judge Michael Shipp ruled in favor of the leagues. I will say that certainly all of them … “But I view myself more as pro transparency. “One of my concerns is that I will be portrayed as pro sports betting,” he says. In September 2014, citing a loophole in the Department of Justice’s language about violations to PASPA, Christie issued a directive to legalize. Deitch prevailed.
His time overseas coincided with the Donaghy scandal and the revelation, as Silver puts it, “of how important it is to have a way of monitoring irregular activity in our games.” He adds, “None of the systems we had in place had captured any betting by Donaghy.”
Leave it to Mark Cuban to be frank about that aspect of the NBA’s support for legalization. I’m glad Adam is putting the hypocrisy behind us and putting it all up front.”
Stern began thinking along the same lines. The best way for the league to monitor our integrity is for that betting action to move toward legal betting organizations, where it can be tracked. But you can bet all interested parties — the other leagues, the states, the bookmakers, the bettors — are following the developments as closely as they would a point spread.
Studying models is one thing. It saw how all that interest, as well as action from illegal offshore betting sites, fueled NBA fandom, and it realized it needed to have a seat at the table — the better to monitor and monetize those burgeoning passions. 16 Gambling Issue.
Through it all, Silver has remained steadfast that legal sports gambling should be addressed first on the federal, not state, level. “The league and many of our teams are actively engaged in the so-called daily fantasy business,” Silver says. A 2007 letter signed by all general counsels of the major sports leagues and the NCAA, including NBA vice president Rick Buchanan, stated, “The harms caused by government endorsement of sports betting far exceed the alleged benefits.”
PERHAPS THE BEST Silver can hope for from other commissioners is a new view of sports betting as a possible “frenemy.” It is tricky, after all, for the leagues to embrace something they’ve long denounced for its impact on the “integrity of the game.” It would also be naive to think that this is all about the sanctity of the results. The move made sense to many in New Jersey, where ailing gaming and racing industries were causing financial strain. “We have studied the New Zealand model and other models in other jurisdictions,” he says.
The evolution of Silver as gambling realist in many ways began in 2006, after he took over the league’s international operations as deputy commissioner. In 2013, $1.05 billion was wagered legally on basketball, combining the professional and college levels. And publicly, it did. “As we began to stage exhibition games in Europe and China and jurisdictions where sports betting was legal, it caused me to focus more on this than I had historically,” Silver says.
And so after taking over for Stern last February, Silver wasted little time implementing his approach. And when it did, it was not subtle.
A united front among all the leagues would certainly help Silver’s cause for a federal solution. You don’t have to be a cynic to think that the leagues and their owners want a piece of that very big betting pie.
The bald 52-year-old man in glasses and a conservative dark suit doesn’t look like an agent of change — especially with the 1970s soul music playing in the background on the set at a recent photo shoot for The Mag. She was represented by Ifrah, while David Deitch, a former Justice Department attorney, represented the government. Billions of dollars are being illegally wagered on sports, almost all online. “Then we began getting approached by sports-betting companies outside of the United States, where it’s legal, to do business with them. But Adam Silver has proved otherwise. It studied and researched and planned behind closed doors before it made its move. In September 2012, the NFL convened a forum in collaboration with other pro leagues, the International Olympic Committee and the NCAA to discuss best practices, law enforcement resources and the gambling industry. And in New Zealand, sportsbook giant TAB paid more than $5 million last year in commissions to the leagues it takes wagers on. Gary Bettman, the longtime commissioner of the NHL, told CNN in November after Silver’s op-ed was published: “I think there needs to be some attention paid to what sports is going to represent to young people. was “inevitable” because cash-strapped states need the revenue.
SPORTS IS AN ongoing contest between two forces: tradition and innovation. But the state didn’t give up. “My greatest concern,” he says, “is that there will be, in essence, a hodgepodge of regulations controlling sports betting that will vary from state to state, jurisdiction to jurisdiction, and will make it increasingly difficult to monitor betting on our very own sport.”
Nine months later, on a cold January afternoon on the 19th floor of league headquarters in Midtown Manhattan, with Hot Chocolate’s “You Sexy Thing” playing, Silver is loose and joking, all the while being prepped for his cover shoot. There also have been other, more private confabs involving high-ranking advisers to the leagues. “I recognize that it can be very damaging to a person or a person’s family, just like other substances of potential abuse taken to extremes. “As someone who attends an enormous number of games, I’m often hearing fans talking about it,” Silver says. In 516 words, he diagnosed the reality of sports betting in the U.S.: Federal and state laws are not stopping anyone from betting. As we became more of a global company, I began to think about what our policy should be here.”
THEN CAME SILVER’S op-ed. But I think that league policy was formulated at a time when gambling was far less widespread — even legally.”
But multiple sources with direct knowledge of meetings between the leagues believe the NHL is much more open to legalization than Bettman’s comments indicate. team owners. Congress should adopt a federal framework that allows states to authorize betting on professional sports, subject to strict regulatory requirements and technological safeguards.”
I have talked to the other commissioners about it. “We did everything possible to encourage it while publicly condemning gambling. Specifically, New Jersey Gov. In those meetings, sources with direct knowledge say, contingency plans were formed in preparation for the day sports betting is legal outside of Nevada.
The opportunity for additional streams of capital from sports betting can’t be lost on U.S. He spent time overseas growing the NBA’s brand, giving him a vantage point to see how legalized gambling worked in other countries. have assigned people in their organizations to study the issue intensively.”
Silver says he hasn’t set a timetable for the day when we can legally bet on a Cavaliers-Heat game. “Even if they’re not betting, they’re highly aware of the betting line and over/unders.”
U.S. While the NBA is still fighting in the courts to keep New Jersey from setting up its own sports-betting operation, three other states (New York, Indiana and South Carolina) have introduced similar bills this year, and a Minnesota state representative, Phyllis Kahn, has told ESPN that she’ll be introducing a sports-betting proposal early in this legislative session.
Fans weren’t the only ones talking about it. The illegal market across sports? Try 132 times that — an estimated $138.9 billion, according to the American Gaming Association.
With the proliferation of casinos and state lotteries, the instant gratification of the Internet and the boom in daily fantasy sports, betting was becoming part of mainstream America. Or on Silver, who gained extensive knowledge of foreign revenue models during his time overseas. The case is headed to the Third Circuit Court of Appeals this spring.
Cuban has suggested that one way of monetizing that interest is to charge sportsbooks and casinos licensing fees to use the league’s data. “We’re still in the monitoring stage,” he says. “Yet at the same time, we were opposing the New Jersey legislation in multiple court actions. I needed a forum to make it clear.”
Privately, though, the league was watching — closely — as the Vegas market and legal daily fantasy sites were growing exponentially. MLB declined to comment for this story, and the NFL refused to even reiterate its anti-legalization stance. And someone who’s a realist in the business
The U.S. Some are based on a time frame, while others are based on going over agreed-upon limits. 2: It will create more “problem gamblers”
Since bookies will not have to pay taxes or licensing fees, they will be able to offer better margins or incentives to their customers. In addition, customers are far more inclined to place a wager when they don’t have to put any money down.
When I think about the best way to legalize sports gambling from a logistical standpoint, I get a headache. In the past two decades, although total revenue has risen, percentage of revenue from gambling has decreased from close to 60 percent to last year’s 38 percent.
The topic of federal legalization of sports betting has been brought up before, but it has gained steam since Adam Silver’s November New York Times op-ed and after Silver’s cover story in ESPN The Magazine’s Gambling Issue. This mirrors a similar concern that some had 25 years ago when Indian and commercial casinos began sprouting up all over the U.S.
Once games happen, the stats are public domain. Illegal gambling is one of the factors that’s associated with gambling addiction,” Keith S. Sen. Yes, trademark images and logos would be a different story, so I could see the leagues getting marketing deals, but I don’t see that as a huge windfall for the leagues.
Furthermore, once sports betting becomes legal the negative stigma behind it will eventually disappear, which will make it a bit easier for problem gamblers to ask for help. This credit relationship will be hard for many gamblers to give up.
In that time span, we all know that Vegas has flourished. John McCain (R-Ariz.) also recently said that Congress needs to hold hearings to discuss legalizing sports betting.
In the most relevant case, CBC, the parent company of CDM Sports, a fantasy provider, sued MLBAM after being denied a new fantasy sports license. In addition, asking for a percentage based on the overall handle (total amount wagered) will cut into the margin of the sports books too significantly.
The thought process here is that with legalized sports betting available locally, there will be less interest in making the trek to Sin City to wager on sports. 3: It will put local illegal bookies out of business
The National Council on Problem Gamblers has found that problem gamblers are most often involved in illegal gambling, so moving toward a model where more gamblers are doing it legally can only help.
In addition, game fixing would be easier in a world where fewer people track or are even aware of things like point spreads and over/under bets. However, there are certainly some myths that I believe can be dispelled.
There are a lot of unanswered questions regarding legalization of sports gambling in the U.S., and it will be fascinating to watch how it unfolds in the next few years. Whyte, executive director of the NCPG, told my ESPN colleague David Purdum.
The real value for them will be potential marketing dollars and increased fan engagement, not licensing fees for data or direct revenue from wagering.
And I have heard some mention licensing fees for data, but haven’t we already covered that in lawsuits against both the NBA and Major League Baseball Advanced Media (MLBAM)? In both cases, statistics and data were ruled to be public, not a private asset for which the leagues could charge a license fee.
Here’s an example. Purdum, an expert on the subject, has been vocal in his belief that online sports gambling will need to be a big part of the new legalization plan, and I share his belief, as betting on a phone and computer is simply much more convenient than driving to a brick-and-mortar sports book and making a wager. Concerts, shows, high-end nightclubs and restaurants draw people to Vegas as much as the gambling does. It’s a pretty reasonable assumption that it’s easier to fix a game in an environment where most of the money wagered is impossible to discover or track by the government. Are fewer people gambling because they can do it in their home state?
Myth No. This is the type of financial recklessness associated with problem gambling.
While it seems that the question of legalizing sports betting presently is more of an if than a when, there remains a great deal of uncertainty regarding what it would look like. If something shady were to occur in a game around a betting proposition, raised awareness by the public about gambling in general would help highlight any improprieties before, during and after the match.
Until many of these questions are answered, it will be difficult to draw any hard conclusions about the ramifications of legalized sports gambling in the U.S. If it’s legalized, there will be huge changes, but some assumptions are simply off.
Mr. But let’s say I have a bad losing streak and end up down more than $1,000. In the latter case, I set up a credit arrangement with Illegal Book B and we agree that I will pay every time I go over $1,000. 5: It will create greater risk for game fixing
At any rate, I really don’t see legalized sports betting in other states having a big impact on the sports betting business in Vegas.
There is simply no way the leagues could ask for a percentage piece of gambling revenue, as this would result in a huge conflict of interest. In order to grow the pie large enough, these conveniences must be provided to gamblers. (It’s common for bookies to offer rebates to their big customers.) This will be difficult for legal bookmakers to compete with.
Myth No. 4: It will damage the sports betting business in Las Vegas
Silver echoed this sentiment when discussing his personal revelation in an exclusive interview with ESPN. This year, it is on pace to welcome a record 40 million visitors. Say I set up an account with Legal Sportsbook A. Many bookies will allow me to get more credit and continue to gamble. Legalized sports betting would elevate these now somewhat esoteric notions into the mainstream conversation about sports. There are no credit checks or margin calls until it is time for me to pay. The experience of going to Vegas is becoming less and less about putting down a sports bet and more and more about the experience of everything else. How will it be regulated? How involved will the government be? Will it be federal enforcement or on a state level?
Las Vegas sports book operators are already looking to expand to other states. “But for the FBI knocking on our door and notifying us about Donaghy’s betting, none of the systems that we then had in place had captured any betting by Tim Donaghy.”
Myth No. operation for the U.K. I am concerned that the overall pie, even with online gambling, may not be large enough for the leagues to make the money they are hoping for.
This is the easiest myth to dispel. I will likely have to put money on deposit to do so. There are going to be a lot of hands in the cookie jar. 1: It will result in large revenue for the leagues . Maybe more so.
I understand the argument that legalized sports betting could expose more people to gambling and the increased ease and access will create more problem gamblers, but I simply don’t buy it. Illegal sports betting has some characteristics that can lead to problem gambling more than legal betting would.
Myth No. The two biggest reasons people bet with bookies (beyond the lack of alternatives) are the convenience and the line of credit. Second, operators will need to run a cost-effective business, which may prove difficult if there are a lot of other hands to feed besides the government.
My answer is a solid maybe. Vegas has had to reinvent itself as a place that is about more than just gambling. bookmaking powerhouse William Hill has already set up an operation in New Jersey, and MGM CEO Jim Murren has said his company is interested in expansion.
Those betting with bookies have predetermined settlement terms. These days, most bookies provide both a phone number and website where bets can be made. U.S. Those who believe that legalized sports betting will lead to more risk of game fixing simply don’t understand why games are fixed. In fact, there’s an argument that exposing more people to sports gambling in their native states will make the general concept of sports gambling more approachable, ultimately leading to a larger overall percentage of sports fans-turned-gamblers.
“One of the things that makes sports betting so interesting is that it is probably by far the most widely participated in form of illegal gambling. “The Donaghy controversy also made me aware how important it is that we have a way of monitoring irregular activity on our games,” Silver said. First off, the government will only legalize if it is going to get significant revenue. District Court Judge Mary Ann Medler ruled in favor of CBC, stating that “statistics are part of the public domain and can be used at no cost by fantasy companies.” One would infer that the same would apply to legal bookmaking operations.
I see the same trend happening if sports betting gets legalized in the U.S. Since sports gambling is currently something that happens in the shadows, problem gamblers are likely to hide in that shadow until it is too late.
Here are the top five myths about legalizing sports betting and why they’re wrong:
Those who believe this simply don’t understand how sports betting with a bookie works. This is not how most bookies work. When I lose this money, it’s gone, and I can’t bet until I put more money on deposit
Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game. If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides.
How the Opening Line Is Made
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action.
Why the Line Changes
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent.
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks.
Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines.
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach